II3050 v2 - Decentral Initiatives

General disclaimer:

• The scenarios presented here are neither an exact prediction of the future nor do they reflect the opinion of the grid operators . Instead they are intended to investigate the impact of different possible developments towards a climate neutral energy system on the energy transport infrastructures. While the developments reflected in the scenarios have been broadly aligned with different stakeholders, alternative choices or variations on certain developments are possible which can be explored in scenario variants.

• The scenario assumptions for the industry sector are to a large extent taken over from the Carbon Transition Model (CTM) which models industrial processes in high detail and has been set-up in alignment with the largest industry parties in the Netherlands. The sectors being affected are chemicals, refineries, fertilizers, steel and waste. For these sectors, final energy demands are shown in ETM but the underlying inputs and assumptions cannot be changed by the user. For more background please consult the scenario documentation (reports).

• All weather dependent profiles follow the climate pattern of the historic climate year 2012 covering different combinations of supply & demand. Accordingly, for this study climate data (e.g. temperature, irradiation, wind profiles) from the Pan European Climate Database (PECD) has been processed and uploaded to the ETM. In addition, specific sectoral demand profiles have been derived from suitable (public) sources to reflect a realistic demand behaviour.

• The ETM is an energy system model covering all relevant energy carriers and end-user sectors for the aim of modelling how energy is being used under different scenarios and to estimate the impact on relevant energy & climate indicators like energy related emissions. However specific aspects like the electricity market, energy exchanges with surrounding countries, the characteristics and the operation of technologies are modelled in a simplified way for the sake of reducing complexity, keeping calculation times low and ensure as much transparency & accessibility to users as possible. Depending on the study and scope, the grid operators apply other more advanced tools e.g. to simulate the European electricity market in more detail and on the requested level of quality.

Scenario Decentral Initiatives (DEC):

The Netherlands seeks regional action by supporting private business cases for climate-neutral technologies. Citizens and local communities have a high degree of autonomy and make their own choices for a sustainable future. Some citizens choose the cheapest solutions, while for others idealistic motives come into play. Sustainable choices by consumers and businesses are supported through various incentives. Local governments do this, for example, with knowledge and financial incentives. A large number of local initiatives by progressive citizen collectives and companies are emerging. As a result, local resources are optimally utilized. Solar and wind energy on land have grown solidly. Industry is transforming towards greater use of bio-based and circular raw materials. In this scenario part of the energy-intensive basic industry is disappearing from the Netherlands. This is driven by the fact that renewable energy is a highly variable source of supply, the acceptance of CCS is limited and there is limited support from the government. Space heating for the built environment consist of a mix of technologies (including to a lesser extent district heating networks) and are powered by various locally available sources, such as geothermal, heat pumps, CHP, green hydrogen and green gas.

Additional background material and information can be found at https://www.energiekompas2050.nl.