II3050 v2 - Internationale Handel

General disclaimer:

• The scenarios presented here are neither an exact prediction of the future nor do they reflect the opinion of the grid operators . Instead they are intended to investigate the impact of different possible developments towards a climate neutral energy system on the energy transport infrastructures. While the developments reflected in the scenarios have been broadly aligned with different stakeholders, alternative choices or variations on certain developments are possible which can be explored in scenario variants.

• The scenario assumptions for the industry sector are to a large extent taken over from the Carbon Transition Model (CTM) which models industrial processes in high detail and has been set-up in alignment with the largest industry parties in the Netherlands. The sectors being affected are chemicals, refineries, fertilizers, steel and waste. For these sectors, final energy demands are shown in ETM but the underlying inputs and assumptions cannot be changed by the user. For more background please consult the scenario documentation (reports).

• All weather dependent profiles follow the climate pattern of the historic climate year 2012 covering different combinations of supply & demand. Accordingly, for this study climate data (e.g. temperature, irradiation, wind profiles) from the Pan European Climate Database (PECD) has been processed and uploaded to the ETM. In addition, specific sectoral demand profiles have been derived from suitable (public) sources to reflect a realistic demand behaviour.

• The ETM is an energy system model covering all relevant energy carriers and end-user sectors for the aim of modelling how energy is being used under different scenarios and to estimate the impact on relevant energy & climate indicators like energy related emissions. However specific aspects like the electricity market, energy exchanges with surrounding countries, the characteristics and the operation of technologies are modelled in a simplified way for the sake of reducing complexity, keeping calculation times low and ensure as much transparency & accessibility to users as possible. Depending on the study and scope, the grid operators apply other more advanced tools e.g. to simulate the European electricity market in more detail and on the requested level of quality.

Scenario International Trade (INT):

The Netherlands strives to develop its own economy by making maximum use of the international global energy and commodity chains. The Netherlands is a “multinational” that makes strategic use of the international energy and commodity markets. Options with the lowest costs are therefore sought in the global market. International free trade plays an important role. The market is helped by supporting general incentives, subsidies and CO2 pricing (partly because of this, Dutch companies also do their bit to make supply chains more sustainable). Hydrogen and other climate-neutral energy carriers are imported from countries where they can be produced at lower costs. The Netherlands become a transit country for hydrogen. In the built environment, individual transition paths will be used with less use of green gas, but a lot of hybrid heating in combination with hydrogen. Industry is becoming more sustainable thanks to electrification and the use of hydrogen (also as a feedstock). Due to global supply chains, part of the energy-intensive industry is moving abroad. Instead, more semi-finished products are being imported, which are further processed in the Netherlands. Also, the Netherlands is committed to producing green hydrogen, directly linked to offshore wind. Because of high energy imports, however, the Netherlands does not need to produce as much itself.

Additional background material and information can be found at https://www.energiekompas2050.nl.